Europe Elects
Immigration Drives a Rightward Continental Shift
Citizens of the European Union’s 27 member states have just voted in elections to the European Parliament. While real power on the continent continues to reside in the national capitals of the European states, and in the EU’s apex bureaucracy (the Commission, in Brussels), the Strasbourg-based parliament plays a role in the adoption of European Union-wide laws, and is an important bellwether of European public political opinion.
What message have they sent? In France, their direction was most dramatic. Exit polls suggest that the Rassemblement National party of Marine Le Pen has stormed to more than 30% of the French vote. In a country with a truly multi-party system that is no mean feat. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance party earned only half that share.
Macron’s response was to immediately call for a surprise parliamentary election. On the face of things, this is a bold move to make after a humiliating defeat. There is method in the apparent madness, though. Macron may be gambling that the anti-RN vote will coalesce around his preferred candidates. This is the strategy which has kept the RN (and the Front National, its predecessor) out of power for decades, but growing economic and social unrest in France, coupled with a seeming inability to control immigration, has severely weakened the anti-RN taboo.
The French President already lacked a majority in the National Assembly, and risked losing control of the legislature over the coming months anyway; holding an election now at least shows an awareness that he needs a renewed mandate to govern in parliament. Nevertheless, he risks being forced to appoint a new prime minister either from the RN itself, or from some as-yet-undreamt unstable coalition. Macron’s current prime minister, Gabriel Attal, supposedly tried to dissuade the President from calling fresh elections. Other French commentators suspect him of a delusional arrogance. Yet Macron has rolled the dice, and the stakes are high.
Already there are stormclouds on Macron’s horizon. His risk could catastrophically rebound upon him. The center-right Les Républicains party, which lost a single seat in this European election and which currently polls at around 7% in France, has already signaled willingness to deal with the RN. The Républicain leader Eric Ciotti has already called for an “alliance” with Le Pen’s party on French television. In a marked rhetorical shift, Ciotti has warned that France is in danger, threatened by an unholy alliance of the far leftists and anti-semites. The centrist Macron, according to Ciotti, is too weak to keep France safe. Pointing to rising violence and insecurity in France, Ciotti has called for a pan-rightist alliance. Whether this materializes remains to be seen – many in Ciotti’s own party are less than thrilled at their leader’s overtures to Le Pen.
[Update: Les Républicains have dumped Eric Ciotti as leader, following uproar amongst Republican politicians in response to his announcement. Mr Ciotti has accused his colleagues of a “flagrant violation” of party rules.]
Another apparent surprise for Macron is that the various Left parties have been pressured by their respective bases to form a Popular Front in the upcoming elections. If Macron had hoped to present his own Renaissance party as the vanguard of an anti-RN coalition, that aspiration appears to be under threat. The Parti Socialiste is snapping at Macron’s heels.
Already the polls are predicting huge RN gains, and a humiliation for Macron’s Renaissance party. This projection sees RN grow from 89 to between 235 and 265 seats in the 577 seat National Assembly. Le Pen’s party would be by far the largest single party in the Assembly. If Les Républicains perform well, an unapologetically right-wing government might be on the cards.
Macron knows this. He is embattled, but cunning and an experienced political operator. He may think he can narrow those polls. Or, if my politically-minded friends are right, and I think they are, he may actually be banking on a Le Pen government. He might calculate that if she, or another senior RN politician, were to be appointed as Prime Minister, the right’s rhetoric might not survive contact with reality. In this strategy of “cohabitation,” Macron would hope and expect experience of government to taint Le Pen. No longer would she be the leader of an insurgent movement, attracting protest votes from left and right, but would be tainted. If I’m right, he’s not just holding his enemies close – he’s giving them a bear-hug and jumping off a cliff.
(In the English-speaking world, some crueler commentators have labeled this phenomenon “being Nick Clegg-ed,” after the former leader of Britain’s Liberal Democrat party. Clegg, now a senior executive at Facebook, was once the darling of British centrists. Five years in coalition with David Cameron’s Conservative Party torched his and his party’s reputation; he led them to a catastrophic defeat in the 2015 general election).
Elsewhere in Europe, the center-right appear to have been major victors. These elections have been a disaster for the Left in Germany, Europe’s economic engine-room. The Greens dropped to 12%, from more than 20%. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD won its lowest share of the vote since the late nineteenth century, at around 14%. The center-right CDU-CSU alliance won around 30% of the German vote. The CDU-CSU leads almost every major demographic group.
Startlingly, the insurgent rightist Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second place, with just shy of 16% of the vote. This is remarkable for several reasons. The German establishment (and many voters) have been horrified by recent scandals, of varying degrees of seriousness, surrounding the AfD. The party’s leading candidate, Maximilian Krah, was forced to step back from campaigning due to the arrest of an aide on suspicion of espionage, allegations of corruption, and – most shockingly in the German context – for seeming to downplay the criminality of the Nazi Waffen-SS. If that kind incompetent political signaling gets them second place, think of what they would get with a charismatic leader…
Furthermore, the AfD has been losing anti-establishment support to the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice party. (Germans love snappy party names, don’t they?) Wagenknecht’s group seems ideologically oddball, until you realize it promises what many voters want: some left-wing economic nationalism, populist rhetoric, a social conservative streak, and providing an anti-establishment voice untainted by any of the AfD’s controversies. Sahra Wagenknecht has excoriated the SPD and the far-Left for, as the New York Times put it, being more concerned with “diet, pronouns, and the perception of racism” than with poverty. Naturally this has resonated with many of the AfD’s supporters in the former East Germany.
All this being the case, many are astonished that the AfD has done so well. As in France, this represents the gradual weakening of postwar political taboos. The AfD were likely also helped by recent and particularly egregious attacks by jihadist terrorists – in one case, a policeman was killed in the city of Mannheim during an attack by an Afghan resident in Germany on an anti-Islamic pressure group. See my own take on that mess here. Above all, there is the seemingly unstoppable shift in German politics towards deep concern at recent, current and future mass migration.
Indeed, this is the common thread across Europe, where in different countries either center-right or far-right parties made major gains. Immigration is the major topic. It isn’t 2015 any more.
There is no doubt that establishment media and political classes in Europe have worked hard to delegitimize anti-mass immigration political complaints. But the political tide is turning. The European right is reforming, within and without the establishment parties. And, as Tom McTague has argued, it may be that we are seeing the formation of a new continental consciousness in the face of Europe’s internal dissensions and external threats.
If European moderates on the left or right really want to keep people they see as dangerous populists out of power, there is only one real solution. The political mainstream must adapt to the legitimate demands of their populations, and demonstrate that they can control their own borders. This, ultimately, is the only way to even attempt to return to anything vaguely resembling post-war normality.
In the near future, Restoration will turn to consider more closely a particularly noticeable new trend: the rise of right-wing youth across Europe. This shift increasingly seems like a young man’s game, especially where the political salience of immigration is concerned. This is a political constituency which European politicians must learn to respond to; the rather tired nations of Europe cannot afford much more political instability. Europe’s young deserve a better future. See my upcoming article on this later in the week.
One postscript: Britain, no-longer an EU member state, is in some ways Europe’s great outlier. Led by the ineffectual and completely beleaguered Rishi Sunak, the Conservative Party looks more on the edge of extinction than mere defeat. Ironically, the arch-eurosceptic Nigel Farage embodies a European trend: the rapid rise of an insurgent right-wing party. Nevertheless, the major story in Britain is the imminent crushing victory of Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. In the UK, the center-Left seems resurgent.
Two points are worth making: Starmer has achieved this, in part, by adopting increasingly right-wing rhetoric on immigration. In a recent election TV debate, he accused his Conservative opponent of “the most liberal prime minister [Britain has] ever had on immigration.” Starmer certainly smells blood in the water. But he should look at the European center and center-left for a warning of what will happen if he fails to deliver a significant reduction in legal and illegal immigration to the UK. A specter is haunting Europe – the specter of a huge continental shift to the right – and it may not stop at the English Channel.
Your analysis deserves commendation. The surge of right-wing parties in countries like France and Italy is undeniable. The decline of socialist parties in Germany and the PVV's triumph in the Netherlands further attest to this shift.
However, at the European level, the narrative of a "right-wing revolt" seems premature. While Eurosceptic voices may have grown by five percent, reaching approximately thirty percent, pro-European socialists still command a formidable majority of seventy percent. Notably, Ursula von der Leyen's faction, the EPP, has even bolstered its ranks with thirteen additional seats, seemingly solidifying her path to a second term. This potential reign casts a shadow, as Mrs. von der Leyen announced last month that, if re-elected, she will implement stricter policies in the ‘war against disinformation,’ including preemptive censorship and ‘vaccines against the disinformation virus.’ These pronouncements suggest we are far from safe harbor.
The limited success of Eurosceptic parties on the European stage is quite remarkable, especially because it contradicts with recent national election wins. In my opinion, the root cause lies in low voter turnout. The labyrinthine nature of European elections, where one casts a ballot for a national party with an opaque European affiliation, undoubtedly contributes to this apathy. Furthermore, a pervasive sense of "euro-defeatism" discourages participation. Many citizens believe their vote doesn’t make a difference, leading them to stay at home. Had Eurosceptics mobilized with greater effort, the electoral landscape could have been dramatically reshaped.
As things stand, we live in a European Union that is veering dangerously close to a totalitarian ideal. What we need is strong opposition. But to realize that opposition, Eurosceptic citizens, especially the euro-defeatists, will need to participate too.
https://www.coddledchildren.com/p/the-crocodile-tears-of-the-euro-defeatist?r=3tt74u
The pendulum is indeed swinging to the right. For two years now I've been warning of this dangerous push towards extremism on both sides. Now, for example, even as Biden accuses Trump of being the face of "white supremacy" the Biden admin has lifted its ban on arming the Azov battalion in Ukraine, as we hurtle toward WWIII.
Fascism and the Rise of Christian Nationalism
"Extremism is so easy. You've got your position, and that's it. It doesn't take much thought. And when you go far enough to the right you meet the same idiots coming round from the left." - Clint Eastwood
https://khmezek.substack.com/p/fascism-and-the-rise-of-christian